Multi-Year Inland Waterway Investment Model and the Value/Consequence Ratio

  • Matthew Robinson
  • Francisco Lefors
  • Justin Capp
  • Grover Laporte
  • James Schreiner
Keywords: 3-Year Predictive Budgeting Model, Value Modeling, Decision Support Interface, Value to Consequence Ratio


USACE’s IWR must responsibly manage its work packages through its Operations and Maintenance (O&M) annual budget. IWR has developed several models that use data to inform investment strategies for the prioritization of work packages; however, these strategies are based on old data and not predictive in nature. Because work package ranks significantly change when applying a Value Model and Monte Carlo simulation, this research focuses on the significance of a 3-year predictive budgeting model; a model which is enabled by the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, 2020). This research will demonstrate a forward-looking methodology using a Value to Consequence Ratio metric (VCR) for funding work packages through a decision support interface via Microsoft’s Power BI. This paper presents the framework for USACE’s Civil Works Navigation business line and creates the potential for future work to integrate other business lines utilizing System Dynamics.


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