Causal Threat Modeling Applied to the Horn of Africa
AbstractInitially developed to defeat the increasing threat of improvised explosive devices (IED) during the height of the Iraq War in 2003, DTRA/JD quickly evolved into the Department of Defense’s (DoD) main effort in countering and reducing the effect of improvised threats. Following a suggestion from DTRA/JD about project leads, our team reached out to AFRICOM and began working on a problem narrowly tailored toward their mission. AFRICOM’s strategic focus in East Africa and the complex situation involving refugees and internally displaced persons in the region require a systematic method to identify the most prevalent threats and their relationship with one another. This paper describes a method to leverage publicly available information (PAI) and K-Means Clustering to identify threats and model their interdependence using a Systems Dynamic model. The output will show the greatest threat to a region enabling a decision maker within AFRICOM to enact policy to reduce the overall threat level.
Bair, J. (2018). IMPROVISED THREATS: Warfighter Support Maintained, but Clearer Responsibilities and Improved Information Sharing Needed (GAO-18-509). Government Accountability Office.
Campbell, J. (n.d.). U.S. Interests in Africa. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/project/us-interests-africa
COMESA Brief Overview - COMSTAT Data Hub. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://comstat.comesa.int/tcagt/comesa-brief-overview
The Fund For Peace (2019). Fragile States Index 2019. Retrieved from https://fragilestatesindex.org/
Garbade, M. J. (2018, September 12). Understanding K-means Clustering in Machine Learning. Retrieved from https://towardsdatascience.com/understanding-k-means-clustering-in-machine-learning-6a6e67336aa1.
Parnell, G.S., Driscoll, P.J., and Henderson D.L. (2011). Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ries, E. (2019). The lean startup: how constant innovation creates radically successful businesses. London: Penguin Business.
Signé, L., & Allen, N. D. F. (2018, March 27). Trump's Africa policy takes form with focus on security (and China). Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/trumps-africa-policy-takes-form-with-focus-on-security-and-china/
Signé, L. & Gurib-Fakim, A. (2019, January 25). Africa is an opportunity for the world: Overlooked progress in governance and human development. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2019/01/25/africa-is-an-opportunity-for-the-world-overlooked-progress-in-governance-and-human-development/
Sterman, J. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill Education.
U.S. Economic Interests in Africa. (1973). Intelligence Handbook. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79S01091A000300050001-3.pdf
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
The copyediting stage is intended to improve the flow, clarity, grammar, wording, and formatting of the article. It represents the last chance for the author to make any substantial changes to the text because the next stage is restricted to typos and formatting corrections. The file to be copyedited is in Word or .rtf format and therefore can easily be edited as a word processing document. The set of instructions displayed here proposes two approaches to copyediting. One is based on Microsoft Word's Track Changes feature and requires that the copy editor, editor, and author have access to this program. A second system, which is software independent, has been borrowed, with permission, from the Harvard Educational Review. The journal editor is in a position to modify these instructions, so suggestions can be made to improve the process for this journal.