Causal Threat Modeling Applied to the Horn of Africa

  • Steven Cromer
  • Connor McDonald
  • Thomas Monahan
  • Seth Shields
  • Patrick DuBois
Keywords: DTRA/JD, Improvised Threats, East Africa, K-Means Clustering, Systems Dynamic Model, PAI

Abstract

Initially developed to defeat the increasing threat of improvised explosive devices (IED) during the height of the Iraq War in 2003, DTRA/JD quickly evolved into the Department of Defense’s (DoD) main effort in countering and reducing the effect of improvised threats. Following a suggestion from DTRA/JD about project leads, our team reached out to AFRICOM and began working on a problem narrowly tailored toward their mission. AFRICOM’s strategic focus in East Africa and the complex situation involving refugees and internally displaced persons in the region require a systematic method to identify the most prevalent threats and their relationship with one another. This paper describes a method to leverage publicly available information (PAI) and K-Means Clustering to identify threats and model their interdependence using a Systems Dynamic model. The output will show the greatest threat to a region enabling a decision maker within AFRICOM to enact policy to reduce the overall threat level.

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Published
2021-03-06